LUKASHENKO AND THE DO UT DES OF GUNS

BELARUSSIANS AT WAR AND TRANSIT OF WEAPONS

Although NATO intelligence portrays the Belarusians as the armed wing of Russia and artfully circulates news - punctually denied by the facts - about hordes of Belarusian soldiers in Ukraine, Minsk's support for Putin is evident, but not how it feels say in Western news. The Belarusian dictator knows how much his existence is linked to a thin red thread that leads straight to the Kremlin, but glimmers of independence remain (and also inscrutable but logical calculations of Realpolitik) that keep Belarusian soldiers away from the front, at least for now.

The only Belarusians present in Ukraine are the hundreds of men of the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment and the Pahonia Regiment, who are fighting against the Russians and the Russian-speaking separatists of Donbas. Moreover, Russian intelligence is well aware of the recruitment base for Belarusian dissidents, which is in Warsaw, and someone may have infiltrated it, despite the "strict" controls of NATO. This eventuality is well aware of the Ukrainians, who already do not trust their officers - very often prone to corruption and double-dealing - let alone the Belarusians! So far the Ukrainians have kept them away from the information that matters, but as casualties mount, they will be forced to tell the Belarusians (and other mercenaries/foreign fighters/volunteers as well) more than they care to. From a verbatim by von der Leyen, later disappeared by the official media, it can be deduced that in November 2022 the Ukrainian soldiers died in the war were around 100,000. That's a very large number for a nation of just 43 million people battling it out against another nation of 143 million. Among other things, Russia in January 2023 had lost, according to Ukrainian estimates perhaps rounded up, about 120,000 soldiers (1) ... many, it is true, but we must consider its considerable pool of reservists. Russia does not risk dramatic ethnic impoverishment, Ukraine does. Therefore, it stands to reason that in a war of attrition – sooner or later – every single ethnic input will become crucial, even the downtrodden NATO-funded Belarusians. Becoming aware of classified information is only a matter of time for Belarusian dissidents and presumed dissidents.

On the official front, concerning the war in Ukraine, Lukashenko seems to be playing cat and mouse, and while on the one hand his support for Putin is obvious, on the other hand he adopts a series of actions that could hardly be adopted by the major ally of Russia. Why does he act so cryptically? Does he want something in return from the West, from Russia, or is it just a strategic diversion agreed with Moscow? Impossible to know for sure, but part of the answer surely lies in its creaking political stability. In April 2021, the Russian FSB and the Belarusian KGB thwarted a coup organized by the CIA, the famous "coup ignored by the West" (2), while in 2022 there were rumors, never confirmed, of a coup organized by Putin to replace an ally too hesitant to offer military aid (3). Here too it is difficult to understand where the truth ends and the propaganda begins, on both sides. To be honest, while we have some relevant evidence for the 2021 coup, there is no factual evidence for the 2022 coup, only speculation spread by Anton Gerashchenko, the adviser to the Interior Ministry in Kyiv. In the absence of evidence, any sufficiently critical individual could read these rumors as a failed attempt by NATO to sow discord within the Euro-Asian bloc or, more realistically, to test the waters by monitoring the Belarusian organizational chart for a weak link.

Beyond the hidden purposes, Lukashenko is aware that he is walking on eggshells, in a precarious balance that could change overnight due to the whims of others. The color revolutions, the new Condor Operations with reassuring tones and winking at human rights, are the most plausible future scenario, but also polonium, dioxin, and sudden defenestrations cannot be ruled out in advance. Organizing a dinner with a secret ingredient is much more practical and economical than placing 100 kg of TNT or arming the hands of a megalomaniacal soldier. The Belarusian autocrat must beware of both enemies and "friends"; that's why every single action must be scrutinized with accuracy, like a chess move. The only certain equation is that if Putin falls, Lukashenko falls for sure, but if Lukashenko falls to foreign hands, Putin too could be in serious trouble; he would withstand the impact better but could have serious repercussions in the medium term, especially if he fails to replace him with a man of absolute confidence. With a world war upon us, having to think about this too would be a dangerous conundrum. At least for now, Putin has every interest in maintaining the Belarusian status quo through gifts and handshakes. The Russian decision to grant Minsk the suspension of repayments on loans for an amount of 1 billion dollars and the issue of a new loan for 1.5 billion dollars is therefore well understood (4).

THE AMBIGUOUS TRANSIT OF WEAPONS

Lukashenko, however, continues to act seemingly hermetically. If on the one hand, he promises Putin to produce attack aircraft, even with a little Russian technological help (5), on the other hand, he continues to pass Western weapons onto his soil. Only recently has he threatened the Baltic countries to ban the transit of weapons, if they support Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya, aligning himself with what was decided by the governor of the Kaliningrad region, Anton Alikhanov, regarding the transit of Polish weapons (6). In the end, is this really what he wants: to have a foot in both camps to have advantages from both sides? Or is his loyalty to Putin much deeper than one might imagine? So far we do not have enough sources to understand it, but there is no doubt that if NATO needs to transit its weapons on Belarusian soil, it is certainly not in as good a state as one would like to believe. After all, it can be very useful for Belarusians (and Russians) to know exactly how many weapons will arrive in Ukraine from the Baltic countries. They will be able to get an exhaustive idea of the scarce ammunition available, of the small arms, and of how modern the 155 mm howitzers promised in Kyiv are. Although Western "former" military personnel are increasingly employed in logistics (just think of Amazon and Fastenal), checking containers and trains on enemy soil is not without risk, since weapons tracking chips are increasingly invisible (7). At present, nothing prevents us from assuming that the transit of weapons to Belarus is an action planned and agreed upon by Moscow and Minsk.

References:

1- https://www.minusrus.com/en

2- https://www.lantidiplomatico.it/dettnews-perch_loccidente_occulta_il_tentativo_fallito_di_golpe_in_bielorussia/37948_40924

3- https://www.ilmessaggero.it/mondo/putin_golpe_lukashenko_bielorussia_guerra_ucraina_russia_ultime_notizie-6580300.html?refresh_ce

4- https://ecfr.eu/article/putins-last-ally-why-the-belarusian-army-cannot-help-russia-in-ukraine/

5- https://www.ilmessaggero.it/mondo/guerra_ucraina_bielorussia_lukashenko_putin_cosa_succede-7237252.html

6- https://panorama.pub/news/lukasenko-prigrozil-pribaltike-zapretom-na

7- https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3015661/beidou-linked-satnav-chip-tracking-guns-china

Picture: Lukashenko, Gapon, AFP