NAURU AND THE DELAYED ARMAGEDDON
ECHOES OF WORLD WAR BETWEEN LEAN COWS AND STRATEGIC ACTIONS
Today, after a phase of prosperity that made its inhabitants among the richest and most obese in the world, the deposits of this microscopic Republic are almost completely exhausted. However, the government has preferred to rely on the fleeting benefits of an extractive industry that is destined to disappear. The Hubbert peak, the maximum extraction phase, is now just a distant memory, and even though phosphate is an inelastic good not susceptible to price fluctuations, a primary commodity for which investing significant state resources is advantageous, it is necessary to acknowledge that the primary vein is running low. There are believed to be another 20 million tons of phosphate at the bottom of the island, but accessing them is quite difficult and they will only last for a few decades (1). Even the deep seas hold potential for exploitation. In 2021, Nauru, with the assistance of the Canadian company DeepGreen/The Metal Company, approached the International Seabed Authority, a body established by the United Nations, to seek permission for the extraction of polymetallic nodules, which are essential for the production of electric vehicle batteries (2). The deadline for a binding decision is approaching in July of this year, but it is evident that there could be significant repercussions on the marine habitat and fishing, a sector that has been neglected for many years but is now being promoted to reclaim its ancient pre-colonial glory."
At this point, diversifying investments is a necessity of primary importance, an obligation on which the livelihood of the inhabitants will depend, inhabitants who are forced to erode their savings and who are increasingly unemployed. The economy is gripped by a trade deficit because almost everything is imported from abroad. To tell the truth, in the 1990s there had been an attempt to make the island a tax haven, by encouraging the registration of banks and companies under an offshore regime, but the USA, which sees everything and knows everything, did not like the massive influx of rubles. Thus, by dint of having to enact laws aimed at tax harmonization, today's Nauruan situation is clearer, but also less competitive, and it is very difficult to find alternative/profitable sources of investment in an area completely devoid of forests and rivers. The water situation is problematic and will get worse over time.
The island obtains every day - through a desalination plant, a power plant, and the collection of rainwater - 1500 cubic meters of drinking water and 1000 cubic meters of non-potable water, but this supply is not enough to cover the daily requirement over the years droughts (increasingly frequent), in the event of technical problems or when the price of oil rises, as occurs in wartime. Recent studies have identified freshwater lenses (of poor quality and quantity), yet, even if it were possible to exploit them by avoiding pollution from anthropic activities, it would still be necessary to have other water resources available (3). Thus, international relations are and will continue to be crucial for this island, and it is clear that, due to lack of water, it will end up at the mercy of the highest bidder. Its state sovereignty is only legal tinsel destined to last not as long as its inhabitants want it, but as long as it will be useful to other states.
THE FORTIN ISLAND AND THE NECESSARY INDEPENDENCE
Since the end of the Second World War, Nauru has logically entered the Western orbit, forging ever-stronger diplomatic ties with the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Australia. If in the beginning it had the strength of the economy on its side, starting from the 1990s, when it was clear that the windfall of phosphate would soon cease, New Zealand and the United Kingdom have slipped away, and Australia has assumed a dominant position. But what does "The Lucky Country" gain?
Australians certainly aren't interested in the tiny island for charitable purposes. And despite what Donald Horne wrote, Australia owes its prosperity not only to the good fortune of being distant from the rest of the world but also to a strong nationalism, which can sometimes lead to sinister and narrow-minded patriotism, disesteem, or open aversion for who is not WASP, just think of the baleful "Stolen Generations". In short, this effective "distance from the world" does not only arise from a colossal geographical barrier but is also an ideal state to be preserved, coveted, and methodically planned. Now, in an era like this, characterized by multiple mass migrations, the "Pacific Solution", implemented since 2001, has allowed Australians to use the remote islands of the Pacific as unavoidable reception camps for the many Asian immigrants (Afghans, Iraqis, Iranians, Pakistanis, and Sri Lankans) who want to settle in Australia. Creating prisons that have no walls, that have no bars, in which restlessness is mitigated by reassuring palm trees and only the mind is imprisoned, is sadistically brilliant. Not wanting too many immigrants is legitimate, but resorting to states that are independent on paper, using them as an overseas fort, with the inevitable legal aberrations that derive from them, borders on an immoral and dangerous Machiavellianism. With this externalization of borders, Australia manages to preserve its Western identity, but, at the same time, is not responsible for the many immigrants detained inhumanely (4). Rapes and suicides are of no interest because they take place elsewhere and do not create legal consequences.
This Pontius Pilate-like pragmatism is also taking hold of Sunak, who intends to deport immigrants to Rwanda. In his time Blair thought about it with Tanzania, but then nothing came of it. We will see if this time the United Kingdom will be able to implement it, even though Paul Kagame is not at all against Russian influence in Africa (5). Much will depend on how much they will be willing to pay to overthrow the competition, considering the short blanket aggravated by the economic crisis and world war. Be that as it may, if we read the papers from 2001 to 2007, the British never criticized John Howard's immigration solution. The few articles on the Pacific Solution available online describe the matter in very neutral tones, bordering on flattery (6). The United Kingdom may not have stirred up exaggerated nationalism or encouraged the Pacific Solution, but it certainly hasn't opposed it, clinging to the pretext of not being able to meddle in other people's affairs. Without a doubt, maintaining sovereignty over a mostly WASP state is much easier than doing so over a "mestizo" state. Protecting the political and cultural dominance of whites may prevent another Barbados, for a state that is striding away - like all other Commonwealth states - from the former mother country. Returning to Nuaru, therefore, it is understandable that its "fictitious" independence is not at all in question. The UK needs the last remnant of sovereignty over Australia, and for that to happen, we need a white-led Australia and an independent Nauru.
Nature, as always, can undermine medium and long-term human projects. Nauru, along with other Pacific islands, is part of the so-called SIDS (Small Island Developing States), microstates with fragile ecosystems, which are at risk of disappearing due to climate change. Sooner or later the beautiful island will be swallowed up by the waves of the ocean and, inevitably, the geopolitical balance - albeit slightly - will change. Even if they are now reluctant to emigrate, they will have to think about where to accommodate thousands of displaced persons who have become stateless. But perhaps it will still take decades or centuries for this to happen, and the systematic implementation of measures to mitigate the impact of climate change could - at least in part - slow down the course of events or make the ex-ante process more manageable. Meanwhile, Nauru continues to be scrutinized with attention and greed by politicians from half the world.
AN INTRUDER ON THE HORIZON
Up to now, the Nauruan geopolitical context has been dominated by the Australia/UK/USA triad, but in recent years the status quo has been undermined by China. Australia itself is increasingly populated by Chinese (about 1.4 million - 5.5% of the population). Many of them have a solid academic background and begin to hold important roles in business and research, while Sino-Australian inter-ethnic marriages represent a large enough number to change the Western identity substratum of the former British colony. This element has also been examined in the now usual war games in which war between Australia (USA) and China is simulated.
In case of war, what would happen to these people? Would it be feasible, considering the different juridical-cultural humus, internment camps along the lines of those for the Germans, Italians, and Japanese during the last world war? And what about "mixed" citizens? Would they suffer aberrant discrimination like that of the "Mischlinge" or sweetened discrimination like that of the Hāfu some years ago? There probably won't be dramatic consequences, especially for the many Australian citizens of mixed origin, but a certain degree of penalization is an eventuality that should not be excluded a priori, and much will depend on the cultural sensitivity of the next US President, as well as on the stony guest which affects its operation. After all, few jurists have raised concerns regarding the expropriation of the assets of Russian oligarchs; while not wanting to compare this case to the confiscation of Jewish property implemented by the Nazis, a certain degree of arbitrariness in the expropriations is undeniable. Proving collusion with the Russian government is in many cases impossible, and in fact, the appeals are ever more numerous. Should there be a war with China, the legal aberrations and unconstitutional laws will be there, as in any other war. If in times of peace, it is irrational to expect men to be rational, let alone in times of war, where ethical and legal dilemmas are used to the max for propaganda purposes, transcending from a vision aimed at detachment and objectivity. Perhaps there will be neither a civil war like that of Bougainville nor a door-to-door war as some fear, but the scenario of an economic war, with the related confiscation of assets, is more than likely. On the other hand, the provident Chinese are aware of it and have already devised a "Plan B", diversifying their investments and buying citizenship in remote Pacific islands (7) or, to be even more relaxed, in Brazil (BRICS state). For now, the Australians (and the USA) are monitoring the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu with great attention, fearing that China could set up a military outpost there, 2000 km from the Australian mainland (8). Nauru too, like all the islands in that area, is a special observation.
LIVE BY THE SWORD, DIE BY THE SWORD
In recent decades it was really easy for Westerners to control it with bribes and half-threats. The island diligently followed the orders of the CIA and the US government, forging important ties with Taiwan and facilitating the defection of North Korean scientists through the cession of Nauru passports (Operation Weasel). Deviating from overseas directives was virtually impossible, and any attempt to follow a multipolar vision was doomed to be sabotaged.
But in recent years Nauru has discovered that Taiwan is small - completely insignificant in the international landscape - and that the Chinese pay better. The latter, analyzing the US strategy, decided to imitate them: "Do the Americans exploit Nauru passports? Well, we will do it too!". This year, for example, it emerged that the consul general of Nauru in Thailand, Onassis Dame, had rented a luxury house in Bangkok, using it as a base of operations to forge passports of Chinese citizens (9). Even the Russians have adopted the same imitative strategy: "Does the US get Taiwan recognized? We get Abkhazia and South Ossetia recognized." $50 million was enough to buy Nauru's loyalty (10); in 2019 the island even withdrew recognition from Kosovo. Lately, he has also been flirting with Israel, a state that genuflects to no one and is a partner of the USA only up to a certain point. The Middle Eastern state has thus obtained the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital, while the small republic of Micronesia has gained know-how in the medical and technological fields (11). Obviously, the main actor among these states is China, which - more and more often - manages to bypass the US veto, exploiting paralogisms and tactical ingenuity.
In particular, doing a quick search with MarineTraffic, we note that in the small port of Nauru, among the few ships that call there, there is the Si Hanh Yun 19, a cargo ship built in 2019 and flying the Panamanian flag. Wanting to stay on a free rate plan and wanting to continue our analysis, we move on to VesselFinder, where we learn about the name of the builder, Zhejiang Tianshi Shipbuilding of Wenling (China), while the owner is Haiyun Ocean Engineering Ltd, a Hong Kong company (12). Flags of convenience can allow you to benefit from low taxation and, above all, from lax supervision, avoiding compliance with strict labor laws and stringent environmental parameters; moreover, by using shell companies, they can make it more difficult to trace the beneficial owner, the one who is financially and legally responsible for the ship. China, which now controls a considerable part of the Panamanian economy, has found a way to make inroads in the Pacific islands, taking advantage of a controversial but legal practice adopted by many shipowners.
In this slow and progressive Sinicization of Nauru and the other Pacific islands, Australia is rescuing as best it can, encouraging generously funded development plans, in which it gains nothing, and making the tenders for the construction of submarine cables are not assigned to Huawei Marine/HMN Tech (13). In the coming years Canberra, as part of Project SEA 2000, will spend up to a billion dollars to buy sea mines to be used as a deterrent against a hypothetical Chinese invasion, and it is not excluded that it will decide to use them also for states that are independent on paper (14). Will this invisible Maginot Line be able to defend such vast coasts and such distant islands from invading hordes?
After all, where many see the gradual Sinicization of the Pacific as the consequence of hidden imperialist projects, others, less Sinophobic and warmongers, see it as a mere historical coincidence, resulting from harmless migrations, from a multipolar economy and the physiological weakening of the USA. Difficult to say too much now and say who is right. The fact remains that the Chinese are aware of Western distrust and monitor the Austro-US war games with discretion, remaining outside Australian territorial waters or, at the most, entering Australia's exclusive economic zone, where they can navigate if they do not carry out any economic activity (15). Discretion is so great that someone could argue that it's not real espionage, especially since already with satellites they would be able to understand what is useful to know. Others may see it as a symbolic shame, a psychological pressure to provoke Australians, but the truth is that sovereignty has never been violated. What is certain is that the struggle for Western control of Nauru and the other islands of Micronesia is yet another proof of how real the new cold war is and how much it is destined to upset the balance of apparently idyllic and insignificant territories.
References:
1- https://myfamilystories.gen.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Day-9-Monday-Nauru-tour-PART-THREE-phosphate-ctd.pdf
2- https://sdg.iisd.org/news/isa-council-agrees-to-intersessional-work-on-draft-exploitation-rules/
3- https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/10/788
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