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CHINA AND VPN: IS THE ENCRYPTED CONNECTION REALLY SAFE?

PERVASIVE CONTROL AND THE ILLUSION OF SHELTER

Anyone who runs a foreign policy website has likely noticed lately that more and more people are using VPNs. This is a tangible sign that no one, deep down, trusts their own government, whether it is an autocracy or a democracy. In the West, however, the majority of the population believes they are free and uses VPNs sporadically, often only to bypass geo-blocking, conduct financial transactions, or out of excessive prudence. In China, more and more citizens use them systematically, even several times a week.

Even a small geopolitics site like this one has seen a sharp decrease in visits from China and a proportional increase in visits from Hong Kong. The former British colony is geographically close to mainland China, which means low latency and high connection speed. This is why it is chosen by many Chinese. In the last three months, visits from this location have quintupled. It is true that if you use Blogspot, the IP address tracking features of visitors are limited compared to those available on more advanced web hosting platforms. However, by integrating analysis tools like StatCounter, it is possible to analyze the different IP addresses, and from these analyses, it is clear—without a doubt—that Chinese caution has increased compared to the past. It is impossible to know whether this is due to fear of the Great Firewall and the Golden Shield Project or if Chinese citizens feel a world war is imminent and have adopted even more cautious and guarded behaviors when viewing foreign sites.

Anyone who knows the Chinese knows this well: despite the existence of dissent against the central power, although it is impossible for us to quantify its exact size, the majority of Chinese are proud that their state has become a great power and are attracted to Western sites not because they hope for the fall of "socialism with Chinese characteristics," but for mere curiosity and proactivity. For a typical Chinese, being up-to-date with news, whatever it may be, is crucial because it allows them to stay in step with the times and act in the best way, taking into account all the variables that affect rival or potentially hostile states. Informing oneself is the key to any victory in a potential war, and the people of Sun Tzu and Wu Qi know this well ("If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle" – Sun Tzu).

Despite what NATO members claim—for obvious opportunistic reasons—visiting Western sites is not necessarily a sign of disaffection towards the state, and the central power itself might favor occasional "bursts of freedom" through VPNs for multiple reasons. On the one hand, it can offer foreigners and the citizens themselves a less centralized and more conciliatory image of the Asian giant. The Chinese will perceive themselves as like any other citizens of the world, while foreigners might invest more, increasing foreign direct investment (FDI). On the other hand, ensuring the illusion of a bulwark against draconian technocratic surveillance will facilitate the control of those who think they are safe. It will be much easier to monitor genuine dissidents and, at the same time, learn about the deepest and most ineffable desires and concerns of the people… in short, a useful opiate for the masses and yet another tool for opinion mining.

In reality, the People's Republic of China controls VPNs almost entirely. Unusual spikes in encrypted traffic can help trace suspicious activities. And even if VPNs encrypt the content of communications, metadata such as sender, recipient, and duration of the communication remain visible. Moreover, occasional DNS (Domain Name System) leaks can reveal the real IP address and facilitate the work of security agencies' hackers.

There is another factor to consider, perhaps the most important of all and also the most disturbing: the likely collusion of providers with the central power. Just under a third of Chinese use a VPN (1), and many choose virtual private networks like Turbo, owned by Innovative Connecting, a Singapore-based company. Obviously, some do not trust this and only choose foreign VPNs, thinking they are more protected.

The most popular among the Chinese is Astrill, managed by Astrill Systems Corp, a company registered in the Seychelles. The choice of the small island state is not accidental, as its data retention laws are less stringent than those of many other countries. This theoretically allows users to be guaranteed a high level of privacy. Who the owner is is not known, but a quick search on LinkedIn shows that the majority of managers and technicians are Pakistani (2). If Astrill VPN were indeed a Pakistani company, some concerns related to data security could arise. China and Pakistan enjoy very close relations, often described as “a friendship deeper than the oceans, higher than the mountains, sweeter than honey, and stronger than steel" (3). This relationship is expressed in various areas, including technological cooperation. China has heavily invested in digital infrastructure in Pakistan, also funding the university education of young people. A prominent example of this closeness is the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) project, which includes significant components to improve IT infrastructure and communications. We do not have irrefutable evidence on this VPN, but it is legitimate to have doubts. Online, some users claim that during elections or Labor Day there are—coincidentally—blackouts of Astrill (4). Information to be taken with caution, but which further illustrates how VPNs are characterized by transparency and opacity. Having a VPN is undoubtedly important, whether you live in the Western bloc or the Eastern bloc, but beware of considering it an inviolable bulwark.







REFERENCES:

1- https://www.independent.co.uk/advisor/vpn/vpn-statistics

2- https://www.linkedin.com/company/astrillvpn/

3- https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202306/t20230628_11104966.html

4- https://www.reddit.com/r/Astrill/comments/1b9mbv0/is_astrillvpn_independent_from_the_ccp/




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