WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT PENTAGON LEAKS?

ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE DOCUMENTS

1- Document named "Russia/Ukraine/Status of Conflict as of 1 Mar. - S/RELIDO" (document marked TOP SECRET/HCS-P/SI-G/TK/FGI/RSEN/ORCON/NOFORN/FISA)

*RELIDO (Releasable By Information Disclosure Official): used to indicate that the director has authorized Designated Intelligence Disclosure Officials (DIDO) to make further sharing decisions following existing procedures for unfiled intelligence materials

*HCS-P (Product): it is an HCS compartment used to protect intelligence information disseminated to IC consumers

*SI-G/TK: SCI Control System: type of classified information concerning or derived from sensitive intelligence sources or analytical processes

*FGI: Foreign Government Information *RSEN: Risk Sensitive

*ORCON: The originator controls the dissemination and/or release of the document

*NOFORN caveat: a document that cannot be issued to non-US citizens

*FISA: Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act

- Ground Sector, February 26: SBU (Ukrainian Security Service) officials admitted that their agents in Belarus violated orders and attacked a RUS A-50U at the Machulyshche air base. This news highlights a serious episode of mutiny among the Ukrainian military. Earlier the Belarusian pro-NATO organization BYPOL had attributed the attack to a special operation orchestrated by partisans of the "Victory Plan" (1).

- Air Defense Sector, February 28: The widely accepted news is reported that Ukrainian forces have attempted to strike a gas facility near Moscow. The attack failed.

-Politics/Miscellaneous Sector: February 28: Belgium communicated its unwillingness to donate combat aircraft to Ukraine while providing logistical help. This is also known news.

- Hereafter the Wagner Group (Группа Вагнера) is always transliterated into the less common romanized form "Vagner", rarely used by non-English speakers. This detail confirms the hypothesis that the document was written by US officials.

2- Document "US Allied & Partner UAF Combat Power Build"

Secret/Rel to Fin. Ukr. FVEY, NATO *Secret document releasable to NATO, Finland, Ukraine, and FVEY, so-called "5 Eyes" (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom, and the United States)

Basically, it is a timetable for the Ukrainian spring counter-offensive, which starts in January and ends in April. The document states, "The brigades (BDEs) will be ready by March 31st and the last brigades by April 30th. But the delivery times of the equipment will affect the formation and timing. The total equipment required is 253 tanks armed forces, 381 mechanized corps, 480 motors, 147 artillery pieces, and 571 US military reconnaissance vehicles (HMMWVs)". By analyzing the table, it is possible to deduce the required equipment, the States that should supply these weapons, and the States that have provided or will provide for the training of the Ukrainian military: Poland, the Czech Republic, Great Britain, the USA, Canada, Germany, France, and Finland. Significantly, the document cannot also be issued to Sweden, while it is to Finland. The difference in treatment will be due to the node of the Swedish negotiations for NATO membership and the fact that Finland should have contributed from 20 February to 30 March to the training of part of the 117 brigades for the XA185 troop transport vehicle (Patria Pasi) and M113.

3- Document "Consolidated UAF Air Defense"     Secret/NOFORN

The document (a map) outlines Ukraine's air inferiority and how it must balance its limited resources to protect population centers, critical national infrastructure, and front-line troops (FLOT). Ukraine's ability to protect the front line will hang in the balance as of May 23. Among the major risks is the mention of the A2/AD (Anti Access/Area Denial), or the integrated Russian defense system, often belittled, denigrated, or even accused of being non-existent by political analysts close to the NATO galaxy. Furthermore, it is written that the SA-10 and SA-11 anti-aircraft missile systems make up 89% of the medium/high range (> 20,000 ft height) Ukrainian air defense, and based on the current consumption of interceptors, the SA-11 will be completely unusable starting from 31 March, while the SA-10 starting from 2 May.

4- Document "Ukraine - Freeze Favorable To Vehicle Maneuver (∼ 16 Inches) Projections

Secret/Rel to USA, FVEY

This map shows a projection of the weather that could condition the counter-offensive. In particular, the months characterized by frozen areas, partially frozen, and ice mixed with slush are detailed. Some areas of the Donbas will only be completely dry in late May. The prediction also aims to understand if and when Melitopol can be reconquered.

5- Document "Russia/Ukraine Joint Staff J3/4/5 Daily Update (D+370)

Secret/NOFORN

Note the bilateral meetings of the US Chief of Staff in March and April with the Italian, Spanish, and Belgian military leadership. Furthermore, the 24-48 hour schedule of Operation Atlas Guardian (air surveillance activity in Eastern Europe) is reported, which foresees 4 US and 46 NATO missions. Other air missions are noted, manned or unmanned, specifying the aircraft or drones used (MQ-9, RC-135/W, CL-650). As regards the sea sector, we can see the activity of the George H. W. Bush CSG aircraft carrier in the Adriatic Sea and the aircraft used: the Fixed Wing-30 helicopter and the Rotary Wing-16 drone.

6- Document "Russia/Ukraine/ Assessed Combat Sustainability and Attrition"      S/RELIDO

It is emphasized that even the US does not have reliable information regarding Russian and Ukrainian losses due to gaps and distortions in information sharing on both sides. The Americans somehow admit that they don't trust the Ukrainian estimates. Taking into account different reports, Russian casualties range between 189,500 and 223,000, Ukrainian ones between 124,500 and 131,000, and civilian casualties between 8,101 and 41,000. Then, we move on to analyze the "sustainability of the fights". Russia has sustainability on the ground of 63%, while Ukraine has 83%. Notably, Russia lost 2,048 tanks, against Ukraine's 468. Additionally, Russia lost 986 artillery pieces, to Ukraine's 328. The Russian superiority, as is widely known, lies in the aviation sector, with an air defense sustainability of 97%, against the Ukrainian 73%. Russia has lost only 97 of 3307 Tactical SAM Units, while Ukraine has lost 34 of 128. For the aviation sector, Russia has a sustainability of 92%, against 68% of Ukraine. Russia lost 72 of its 696 bombers, against Ukraine which lost 60 of 145. As for rotorcraft, Russia lost 81 of 1125, and Ukraine 32 of 139. From the end of February, it is planned to issue a report on captured or abandoned equipment. Surprisingly, no one has thought about it after a year of war.

However, this is a non-exhaustive article, which summarizes only some of the numerous details present in the documents stolen or sent by the US intelligence itself for purposes unknown to us (veiled warning to the Ukrainians in view of a progressive de-escalation and/or false information for throw off the enemy). If there were to be a deep throat within US intelligence, it won't be impossible to track it down, also considering the detail - visible in the photos (deliberately ostentatious?) - of the table worn by some peculiar scratches, unless in the meantime have already covered them. Furthermore, the now famous brochure on the GlassHawk HD Spotting Scope riflescope, by the Creative XP company, is shamelessly and recklessly visible, and outlines a considerable interest in firearms, endorsing the hypothesis that it all started from an insider. 

INDISCRETIONS

Some indiscretions cannot be verified through direct analysis of documents sent to the press or whistleblowing sites. While present on the web, some documents are too grainy to be analyzed properly. It seems, however, that this is only the tip of the iceberg and that there are about a hundred classified documents, not a dozen. An interesting aspect of the first rumors reaching the New York Times, now in the public domain in Israeli newspapers, is the pressure exerted by the US on Israel to force Netanyahu to donate Israeli weapons to Ukraine, in particular the Iron Dome. The recent protests against the justice reform, with enormous and fierce crowds, may have been encouraged by Mossad, which allegedly incited the easily malleable recruits to infiltrate en masse and actively participate in the riots that have blocked the state for weeks (2). David Barnea denies it, but it is fair to remember that the intelligence chief studied Finance in the USA and his relations with the Americans are more than cordial. It is difficult to say whether this serious scenario, which implies foreign interference and an intelligence agency to be better controlled, is real or not. The Israeli government strongly denies it and has every interest in doing so, but we can expect much more caution from Netanyahu, who usually feasts confidently in institutional dinners and non-kosher restaurants around Europe. In the coming months, we will see whether the Prime Minister of Israel renews his trust in Barnea or chooses someone else. The only certainty is that all the documents relating to Israel, its weapons, and relations with Ukraine, Turkey, and the Palestinians have not been released to the Middle Eastern state as well. However, Israelis are used to being spied on and, ever since the USS Liberty affair, they have clearly and decisively demonstrated that they know how to remedy it.

 UPDATE

 EPILOGUE OF APRIL 13th

Jack Teixeira, the alleged "mole" who released several secret Pentagon files on Discord, has been arrested. The 21-year-old is an aviator in the Massachusetts National Guard. Teixeira, who called himself "OG" on social media, was the leader of "Thug Shaker Central", an online discussion group in which about 30 people shared a passion for video games, guns, and racist memes. Much of the press portrays the young soldier as a lone wolf who acted only to obtain consensus within his small virtual group, to which he often expressed his disappointment for the crucial information that the government hides from the masses (3). Still, controversial aspects remain about his work and his hypothetical instigator. First of all, one wonders how a barely adult boy may have so many classified documents. Russian espionage, banal US disorganization, or False Flag Operation?

DOCUMENTS OF APRIL 16

1- UAF in Bakhmut Almost Encircled; HUR Plans to Send in Elite Unit to Stabilize the Catastrophic Situation                  

 (TS/SI/Rel to USA, FVEY/FISA)

The Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut have been almost completely surrounded by the Russians since 25 February. The situation is so dire that on February 28, the Chairman of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (HUR), Kyrilo Budanov, ordered an elite unit to deploy there for two weeks. According to Roman Mashovets, Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy, there was only one supply road to Bakhmut, and it was subject to shelling, plus "a couple of foot crossings on the left bank of an unspecified river" (Pishchányy? Bakhmutka?). Is really striking that the Americans do not have such important information from a strategic point of view. We could deduce from this that the exchange of information between the two allies is not detailed.

2- Equatoguinean Official Stresses Importance of Security in Advance of Russia-Africa Summit                                         

 (TS//SI/Rel to USA, FVEY)

Equatorial Guinea's Minister of External Security Juan Antonio Bibang Nchuchuma said ahead of a preparatory meeting for the Russia-Africa summit in July that Russian military training is outperforming that of the West, due to greater Russian experience in the formation of special units. He also argued that the USA and Russia are competing to curb terrorism, but the latter is attributable to Westerners who, over the years, have fomented it to pressure African regimes and subject them. In the next meetings, Russia and Equatorial Guinea will discuss food security, public health, human resource training, and energy security. In Nchucuma's hopes, the energy sector will become crucial, since it generates more employment and consequently better health care access. From this brief dispatch, one has the perception that concerning sub-Saharan Africa, the USA is not interested only in Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, and Mali, but in any African state that can be used from an anti-Russian perspective. Every single African minister is monitored with zeal and diligence. Among other things, it is interesting to note that this document is not releasable also to NATO members; perhaps the reason for this is the tacit rivalry between the US and France in sub-Saharan Africa.

3- UK/PRC/ Competing UK Visions for Counter- PRC Policy in Indo-Pacific

 (SECRET/NOFORN)

The document, dated February 2023, outlines possible future scenarios regarding British policy in the Indo-Pacific from an anti-Chinese perspective. It is reported that the British defense minister, Wallace, has explored the possibility of expanding the naval presence in Southeast Asia. The UK currently has a presence in Singapore and Brunei, but may seek permission from the US to have a base in Japan. Furthermore, jointly with Japan and South Korea, it could patrol the Sea of Japan. Instead, the Labor shadow defense minister, Healey, has a less interventionist vision. The British Labor Party, while acknowledging that China is "a systemic challenge", does not consider it wise to invest resources in that area. It then goes on to analyze how the Chinese perceive the United Kingdom and its foreign policy. According to Americans, the current British government is perceived as anti-Chinese and state media have written more articles in favor of the Labor Party than the Conservatives. It immediately catches the eye that, even if everything is written impartially and a US position is not deduced, the document cannot also be released to NATO countries or to the FVEY, perhaps so as not to give the British the perception of being spied on. Furthermore, the British Prime Minister, Sunak, has Indian origins and is married to one of the richest women in India as well as one of the owners of the Infosys technology company, which works in close synergy with the Indian Ministry of Defence. It is not excluded that the Americans do not fully trust Sunak because India is one of the BRICS countries.

4- Why are JDAM-ERs Failing? BDA From Recent Strike?

  (SECRET/NOFORN)

The Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), donated by the US to Ukraine, is a guidance kit that converts unguided bombs - "dumb bombs" - into guided ones. The JDAM - which costs over $24,000 a piece - could theoretically be useful for hitting large targets from great distances. However, it seems to fail quite often and the Americans have not pinpointed the cause for certain. One reason could be that the Ukrainians are not able to properly arm the fuses of bombs, and this would be further evidence that their training is deficient. The other reason could be Russian jamming which disturbs the signal. Even this news doesn't add anything new; it has long been known that the Russians are skilled in Electronic Warfare and that they are only limited in using jamming against short-range drones.

References:

1- https://cryptome.org/   (April 16, 2023)

2- https://www.mako.co.il/news-military/2023_q2/Article-fca7944c7076781027.htm

3- https://www.tio.ch/dal-mondo/cronaca/1660043/leak-talpa-arrestato-fbi-usa

Imagine: Pentagon (painted by Escher), Unprompt AI